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IPR Seminar: Dr. Paula England, Professor of Sociology, NYU

November 27, 2012
5:30PM - 6:30PM
038 Townshend Hall

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Add to Calendar 2012-11-27 17:30:00 2012-11-27 18:30:00 IPR Seminar: Dr. Paula England, Professor of Sociology, NYU The Longterm Rise in Premarital Births:  Is it About the Economy or Sex? Abstract: Focusing on women born from 1920 to 1964, we examine cohort trends in premarital first births. The steady rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. But cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how premarital conceptions are resolved. We decompose observed cohort trends in premarital first births into components reflecting: (1) cohort trends in age-specific rates of premarital conceptions taken to term, (2) the retreat from first marriages before such conceptions, which increased women’s years of exposure to the risk of a premarital conception; and (3) trends in whether women marry between a premarital conception and the resulting first birth. For women born between 1920-24 and 1945-49, increases in premarital first births primarily reflected increases in premarital conceptions.  For women born between 1945-49 and 1960-64, increases in premarital first births primarily reflected declines in responding to premarital conceptions with marriages before the birth, colloquially called “shotgun marriages.” Trends in premarital first births were affected only modestly by the retreat from marriages not following a conception for either whites or blacks.  We interpret results to cast doubt on the decreasing “marriageability” of men as an explanation of the upward trend in premarital births, and to suggest the possible role of increases in premarital sex in cohorts who came of age well before the “sexual revolution” of the 1960s. 038 Townshend Hall Institute for Population Research popcenter@osu.edu America/New_York public

The Longterm Rise in Premarital Births:  Is it About the Economy or Sex? 

Abstract: Focusing on women born from 1920 to 1964, we examine cohort trends in premarital first births. The steady rise in premarital first births is often argued to be a consequence of the retreat from marriage, with later ages at first marriage resulting in more years of exposure to the risk of a premarital first birth. But cohort trends in premarital first births may also reflect trends in premarital sexual activity, premarital conceptions, and how premarital conceptions are resolved. We decompose observed cohort trends in premarital first births into components reflecting: (1) cohort trends in age-specific rates of premarital conceptions taken to term, (2) the retreat from first marriages before such conceptions, which increased women’s years of exposure to the risk of a premarital conception; and (3) trends in whether women marry between a premarital conception and the resulting first birth. For women born between 1920-24 and 1945-49, increases in premarital first births primarily reflected increases in premarital conceptions.  For women born between 1945-49 and 1960-64, increases in premarital first births primarily reflected declines in responding to premarital conceptions with marriages before the birth, colloquially called “shotgun marriages.” Trends in premarital first births were affected only modestly by the retreat from marriages not following a conception for either whites or blacks.  We interpret results to cast doubt on the decreasing “marriageability” of men as an explanation of the upward trend in premarital births, and to suggest the possible role of increases in premarital sex in cohorts who came of age well before the “sexual revolution” of the 1960s.