Jane Cooley Fruehwirth, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Professor, Economics
Title: Lasting Effects: An Econometric Framework for Resilience
Abstract: Resilient individuals bounce back quickly from adversity; less resilient individuals may need intervention to recover. Knowledge of resilience can help decision-makers target scarce resources more efficiently. We develop an econometric framework that separates resilience (the persistence of treatment effects) from time-varying treatment. We apply this to administrative data on college students to measure the effects of the pandemic on learning and to determine which students are more resilient based on demographics and college preparation. We show how to efficiently target scarce resources using these resilience profiles. To help inform investments in building resilience, an important focus of college programming, we then link to unique survey data to determine what pre-pandemic socioemotional skills are associated with resilience. Finally, we analyze how revealed academic resilience contributes to future beliefs about resilience and the relationship between resilience and risk-taking behaviors.
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