Title: Total Fertility Decline and the HIV Epidemic: The case of Zambia
Abstract: Cohort studies have provided evidence of a decline in fertility associated with the progression from HIV to AIDS. Less progress has been made measuring the impact of HIV on fertility at the population level. One proposed method exploits geographic variability in the level of HIV prevalence and changes in the total fertility rate. This approach is problematic, however, because it ignores the composition of the infected population, with respect to the time since infection. In this talk I introduce an approach that combines the distribution of infection times with a model of HIV and age-specific fertility to show how HIV influences the total fertility rate. This model can be estimated using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys that contain information on HIV prevalence and fertility, as illustrated with Zambia, a country with relatively high levels of HIV prevalence and fertility.